Murray St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	48.0
Current RPI:	48
Expected SOS:	193
Current SOS:	193
Current Record:	24-5
Expected Record:	24-5
Current Conf Record:	18-2
Expected Conf Record:	18-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-0
Current OOC Record:	6-3
Expected OOC Record:	6-3
Expected OOC RPI:	103
Expected OOC SOS:	139

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-5	48.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	H	67-72	L	0%
11-18	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	61-80	W	100%
11-25	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	H	81-73	W	100%
12-2	Florida A&M (332.0)	MEAC	H	80-59	W	100%
12-9	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	72-78	W	100%
12-12	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	A	69-55	L	0%
12-16	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	H	100-63	W	100%
12-19	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	H	77-81	L	0%
12-22	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	72-81	W	100%
12-28	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	80-52	W	100%
12-30	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	87-63	W	100%
1-4	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	H	89-73	W	100%
1-6	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	82-68	W	100%
1-11	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	76-71	L	0%
1-13	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	A	45-71	W	100%
1-18	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	79-72	L	0%
1-20	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	A	57-76	W	100%
1-25	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	87-81	W	100%
1-27	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	88-73	W	100%
2-1	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	A	75-87	W	100%
2-3	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	A	53-66	W	100%
2-8	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	H	84-63	W	100%
2-10	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	A	66-75	W	100%
2-15	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	H	68-60	W	100%
2-17	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	H	75-65	W	100%
2-22	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	A	66-76	W	100%
2-24	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	64-73	W	100%
3-2	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	N	70-63	W	100%
3-3	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	N	68-51	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Murray St.	OVC	26.38	26.38	83.45	83.45	17.65	17.65
Jacksonville St.	OVC	5.98	5.98	65.52	65.52	1.86	1.86
Austin Peay	OVC	4.45	4.45	57.14	57.14	0.64	0.64
Belmont	OVC	4.40	4.40	74.19	74.19	2.13	2.13
Tennessee Tech	OVC	4.39	4.39	58.62	58.62	0.76	0.76
Eastern Illinois	OVC	4.37	4.37	37.04	37.04	-1.13	-1.13
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	4.37	4.37	32.14	32.14	-1.56	-1.56
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.31	4.31	44.44	44.44	-0.48	-0.48
Tennessee Martin	OVC	4.26	4.26	29.63	29.63	-1.74	-1.74
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.72	2.72	48.15	48.15	-0.10	-0.10
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.64	2.64	32.14	32.14	-0.94	-0.94
Morehead St.	OVC	2.63	2.63	23.08	23.08	-1.42	-1.42
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.95	1.95	61.29	61.29	0.44	0.44
Saint Louis	A10	1.84	1.84	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	1.83	1.83	75.86	75.86	0.95	0.95
Detroit	Horz	1.80	1.80	20.69	20.69	-1.06	-1.06
Illinois St.	MVC	1.80	1.80	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Wright St.	Horz	1.78	1.78	74.19	74.19	0.86	0.86
Auburn	SEC	1.75	1.75	77.42	77.42	0.96	0.96
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.72	1.72	25.00	25.00	-0.86	-0.86
Marist	MAAC	1.72	1.72	20.00	20.00	-1.03	-1.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.30	0.30	33.33	33.33	-0.10	-0.10
Chattanooga	SC	0.28	0.28	25.81	25.81	-0.13	-0.13
IUPUI	Horz	0.26	0.26	32.14	32.14	-0.09	-0.09
Bradley	MVC	0.23	0.23	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.22	0.22	69.70	69.70	0.09	0.09
Lipscomb	ASun	0.22	0.22	68.97	68.97	0.08	0.08
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.20	0.20	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Milwaukee	Horz	0.19	0.19	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.18	0.18	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Western Illinois	Sum	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.17	0.17	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.16	0.16	84.38	84.38	0.11	0.11
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.16	0.16	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.14	0.14	32.35	32.35	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
LSU	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01